NEWS FLASH

I write these posts far in advance, then polish them repeatedly, which makes it hard to keep up with fast moving news. Two posts were scheduled for today and next week so that they would come one year before the release of a book. That will have to change. I have two things I need to say, so the scheduled posts will both get bumped forward, along with a general reshuffling of the next dozen.

This all started two days ago when I ran into a situation that called for a response to the ongoing war against Iran. It led me to write the post that you will see next week.

Then, three hours later on the same day, the news reported that Trump said he was negotiating with Iran, and Iran said they weren’t negotiating with him.

Really?

History seems to be repeating itself, so now I have to write this post.

I’ve seen this movie before, but not many people have, so let me explain. I grew up in north-eastern Oklahoma, which was the land assigned to the Cherokees. I learned all the cliches then, and later acquainted myself with their actual history.

The Cherokees came from the eastern United States, largely Tennessee and Georgia. During the first half of the 1800’s they lived in cabins not very different from their white neighbors, raised crops in similar ways, held slaves, and intermarried with whites. John Ross, their principal chief, was seven-eighths Scottish.

Nevertheless, their white neighbors wanted their land, and President Jackson wanted them, and most of the other tribes, out of the United States. He offered the Cherokees land across the Mississippi in exchange for their homeland, in an area owned by the United States but not part of any state. It came to be called Indian Territory, and later Oklahoma.

The Cherokees didn’t want to go.

Cherokees were divided in many ways, as human groups usually are. Some were unable to speak English and lived as closely as possible to the old ways. Some were more integrated into the white world.

That exact same sentence could be used to describe their white neighbors, if you slip in the word “proper” just before the word “English”.

There were factions among the Cherokees, with differing responses to the idea of removal. Jackson found a faction he could buy off, signed a treaty with them, then sent the Army to move the entire Cherokee nation whether they agreed with the treaty or not.

That is a lot of history to cram into 220 words, but it is essentially factual, if short on detail.

So what does that have to do with Trump repeating history? He says he  is “negotiating” peace with someone, but won’t say who. We have to guess, while also considering that it might be an outright lie.

It isn’t the Iranian government (unless they are flat out lying), but possibly some disgruntled diplomat, someone who wants out of the war, or someone who can be bought off. Like Jackson with the Cherokees.

So here are the choices we face:

One, Trump is actually negotiating with someone in authority and a treaty will come out of the process. I give that a 1% or less chance of being true.

Two, Trump is actually negotiating with someone who has no authority, and any treaty coming out of the process will be bogus. That is history repeating itself.

Three, there are no real negotiations, just another smoke screen.

The chances of a positive outcome don’t look good.